Geopolitical··Severity 8
UN experts say grounds to believe US committed war crimes in Iran strikes
The US has not acknowledged carrying out February's deadly strikes on a primary school in Minab and a sports complex in Lamerd.
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
62%Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Primary source: BBC World
Ваши вероятности A/B/C
C 33%