Geopolitical··Severity 8
US and Iran hold first talks since June after Trump's 'annihilation' threat
The talks are the first since a ceasefire collapsed in June, with the sides exchanging fire intermittently.
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
51%Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Primary source: BBC World
Ваши вероятности A/B/C
C 33%