Natural··Severity 7
Somali army clashes with local forces for control of Baidoa
The latest outbreak of fighting in the South West State city stranded civilians unable to flee or reach hospitals.
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
35%Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Primary source: Al Jazeera
Ваши вероятности A/B/C
C 33%