Geopolitical··Severity 9
Iran says it expects US response Tuesday on plan to reopen Strait of Hormuz
Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Tehran expects Washington to respond to its proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday.
In exchange for reopening the vital shipping route, Tehran is seeking guarantees including a regional ceasefire, the lifting of sanctions on its oil sector and an end to the US naval blockade.
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
73%Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Primary source: France24
Ваши вероятности A/B/C
C 33%