Geopolitical··Severity 8
Russia's ruling party on track to win election after Ukraine's drone attacks on Moscow
Russia's ruling United Russia party on Sunday was projected to win the country's tightly controlled parliamentary elections, according to exit polls.
Ukraine launched a massive drone attack on Moscow, killing three people, said city officials, on the third and final day of Russia's wartime vote.
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
64%Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Primary source: France24
Ваши вероятности A/B/C
C 33%