Catalogue
Scenario archive
Open feed of trigger events. Click a card to see the chain, A/B/C probabilities and the fact-check after the horizon resolves.
Sanctions against Russia starting to hit European economy, social sphere hard — Kremlin
Speaking about the 21st package of sanctions against Russia, Dmitry Peskov emphasized that the EU's options for imposing restrictions are increasingly limited
August 5, 2026
US costs of war with Iran to be repaid ‘many times over’ — Trump
According to Donald Trump, the United States receives "billions of dollars" from Venezuela
August 5, 2026
New UK PM Burnham assures Zelenskyy of continuing Ukraine support
Burnham is the fifth British prime minister to deal with President Zelenskyy since the war on Ukraine started in 2022.
August 5, 2026
Ukrainian public broadcaster Hromadske says police detained its reporter
Ukrainian public broadcaster Hromadske says its journalist Yevhenii Shulhat was detained by police over an alleged violation of military registration rules while travelling in a taxi in Kyiv.
August 5, 2026
Will UNESCO’s heritage listing halt Israeli plans for West Bank’s Sebastia?
Sebastia, a 3,000-year-old site, faces threats as Israel intensifies plans for land seizures and settlement expansions.
August 5, 2026
Hodgkinson & Asher-Smith in GB squad for Europeans
Keely Hodgkinson, Dina Asher-Smith and Katarina Johnson-Thompson are named in the Great Britain squad for next month's European Championships in Birmingham.
August 5, 2026
Antares raises $470M to build nuclear reactors for the U.S. military
Antares has raised $470 million to build small modular reactors — 100 kW to 1 MW — for U.S. Air Force bases.
August 5, 2026
James Comey says seashells post was a political speech, not a threat against Trump
Former FBI (Federal Bureau of Investigation) director James Comey urged a judge on Monday to throw out federal charges against him, arguing that a photo of seashells arranged on a beach he posted on social media was not a call to violence against US President Donald Trump but protected political speech. Comey’s lawyers argue the government cannot prove the Instagram photo of seashells in the numerical arrangement of “86 47” constituted a “true threat” against the Republican president, who fired...
August 5, 2026
India suspends police officer for firing AK-47 at student protesters
An Indian police officer has been suspended after firing an AK-47 rifle at students protesting over leaked exam papers.
August 5, 2026
Opinion: Why tying a Saudi nuclear deal to Israel is a strategic mistake
Opinion: Why tying a Saudi nuclear deal to Israel is a strategic mistake The future of US-Saudi Arabia relations may hinge less on grand declarations than on Washington's ability to distinguish between strategic interests and political aspirations. If the United States conditions a civilian nuclear agreement with Saudi Arabia on the kingdom's immediate accession to the Abraham Accords , it would be collapsing two fundamentally different policy objectives into a single diplomatic test. Such an approach may appear to increase American leverage. In practice, it is more likely to diminish US influence while accelerating the emergence of a more multipolar Middle East. The issue is not whether normalisation between Saudi Arabia and Israel would serve regional interests. There are persuasive arguments that it eventually could. Rather, the question is whether Washington can realistically expect Riyadh to abandon a position it has articulated with remarkable consistency for more than two decades: that formal normalisation must follow – not precede – a credible pathway towards Palestinian statehood . Read more: Why tying a Saudi nuclear deal to Israel is a strategic mistake Opinion by Dr Ahmed Altuwaijri US President Donald Trump and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman at the US-Saudi Investment Forum in Washington on 19 November 2025 (Brendan Smialowski/AFP)
August 5, 2026
IN BRIEF: Peskov reflects on Russia’s difference from US, ‘might makes right’ rule
Dmitry Peskov noted that Western countries had destroyed independent and dissenting media as soon as the conflict with Russia had begun
August 5, 2026
Spurs’ plans for new training facility in London park blocked by high court
Judge quashes Enfield council’s decision to grant planning permission for new women’s and girls’ football academy A council’s decision to allow Tottenham Hotspur Football Club to build a new training facility in a park in north London has been quashed by a judge at the high court. The campaign group Guardians of Whitewebbs told a hearing in June that Enfield council’s decision to grant planning permission for a new women’s and girls’ football academy on 6.5 hectares (16 acres) of land in Whitewebbs Park was unlawful. Continue reading...
August 5, 2026
Bell stays cool as Brave win last-ball thriller
Lauren Bell holds her nerve as Southern Brave win a last-ball thriller against MI London to maintain their 100% start to this year's edition of The Hundred.
August 5, 2026
Three bodies recovered from under rubble after Russian airstrike on Donetsk Oblast – photos
Emergency workers have recovered the bodies of three people from under the rubble of two destroyed houses in the village of Bilenke, Donetsk Oblast, following a Russian airstrike on a residential area.
August 5, 2026
What you need to know if you're travelling to France or Spain
The BBC’s cost of living correspondent explains how to handle holiday cancellations as a result of European wildfires.
August 5, 2026
Donald Trump rebuilds his tariff wall
The US president is moving his signature trade policy into a new phase
August 5, 2026
‘Born out of quality’: Webb vows to increase match officials from minority groups
Referees’ body stands by diversity initiatives Webb believes diverse talent pool will ‘raise standards’ Howard Webb, England’s chief refereeing officer, has vowed to continue increasing the talent pool from under-represented communities in English football’s officiating pathway, rejecting the wider backlash against diversity initiatives. Addressing that historic under-representation has prompted a new direction. In June, the newly named Professional Referees’ Body (Pro Ref), formerly called Professional Game Match Officials, announced that Select Group 1, 2 and its supplementary list had been merged into a new, single Professional Referee Group in the men’s professional game and will largely service the Premier League and the Championship from the start of the 2026-27 season. Pro Ref said it would create flexibility in appointments and help to recognise a wider variety of talented match officials as part of the organisation’s new direction. Continue reading...
August 5, 2026
Ukrainian exports partially rerouted via alternative pathways
Due to Russian pressure on Ukraine's maritime corridor, Ukrainian traders have begun redirecting some of their wheat and other cargo towards the Danube, though most exporters are not prepared to compensate for the loss of the sea route at any cost and are taking a wait-and-see approach.
August 5, 2026
Scotland's Lynn surprises himself to join Ward on pommel podium
Scotland's Cammy Lynn surprises himself to join compatriot Reuben Ward on the pommel horse podium at the Commonwealth Games.
August 5, 2026
Trump says he will ask Putin if Russian satellites are aiding Tehran
Trump says he will ask Putin if Russian satellites are aiding Tehran US President Donald Trump said on Monday he will ask Russian President Vladimir Putin if Russian satellites are helping Tehran direct strikes in the Middle East. "I'll ask Putin about it. We'll find out," Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One.
August 5, 2026
O'Sullivan makes winning start to season in Shanghai
Ronnie O'Sullivan makes a comfortable start to the new snooker season as he wins in the first round of the Shanghai Masters.
August 5, 2026
Israeli election campaign billboards in Cyprus spark debate
Israeli election campaign billboards in Cyprus spark debate Submitted by Hannah. Smith on Mon, 07/27/2026 - 15:56 Yashar party leader Gadi Eisenkot is criticised as concerns grow over increasing Israeli presence in Cyprus Gadi Eisenkot has taken his election campaign to Cyprus with a billboard targeting Israeli holidaymakers and expats on the island (X/Fidias0) Off Israeli opposition leader Gadi Eisenkot has been hit by a backlash over an election campaign billboard in Cyprus targeting Israeli tourists and residents. An image shared by Cypriot MEP Fidias Panayiotou on Sunday showed the billboard in Hebrew featuring a photo of Eisenkot next to a message reading: “Israelis, enjoy! You deserve it!” which can be seen by travellers leaving Larnaca airport. For those going to the airport, a second one reads: “Have fun? Now come back and win!” "This photo was not taken in Israel, but in my country, Cyprus," Panayiotou said. "This is simply not right. We must defend Cyprus's sovereignty." Cyprus is a leading holiday destination for Israelis, who comprised the island’s second-largest group of visitors in 2025. Since Israel’s genocidal war on Gaza and its subsequent wars on Iran and Lebanon , Cyprus has seen an increase in the number of Israeli tourists and residents. With more Israelis buying property on the island and reports of increased real estate signs in Hebrew, the ads caused some Cypriots on social media to question the potential impact of foreign political messaging in Cyprus. Both Cypriots and Israelis also questioned the reasoning behind campaigning for the upcoming Israeli elections outside of the country. This photo was not taken in Israel, but in my country, Cyprus. This time is political propaganda, but it is also becoming increasingly common to see billboards advertising real estate in Hebrew across the island. This is simply not right. We must defend Cyprus's sovereignty. pic.twitter.com/wGTBjC1Qaw — Fidias Panayiotou (@Fidias0) July 26, 2026 In a video shared on TikTok, Panayiotou called the move “particularly concerning” and "unacceptable", proposing legislation that would prohibit countries outside the EU from promoting election campaigns in Cyprus. His comments reflected a wider debate sparked by the incident. Melanie Steliou, an actress and political activist, wrote : “Billboards advertising real estate in Hebrew have become the norm in Cyprus. At a time when concerns are growing over the large-scale purchase of land and property by Israelis in Limassol, Paphos and Larnaca, this image raises legitimate questions about the limits of foreign economic and political influence in the public space of the Republic of Cyprus.” “Would anyone expect to see a campaign billboard for a Cypriot or Greek politician on a motorway in the UK, Germany, Spain or Ireland?” she added. Alongside the increased Israeli presence in Cyprus, the two nations have been strengthening their political and security ties and focusing on economic relations, with a growing presence of Israeli real estate brokers and entrepreneurs on the island, particularly in Larnaca. Cyprus also provides Israel with airspace for training exercises, and earlier this year the two countries deepened their military cooperation, along with Greece, in a trilateral deal . As some Cypriot social media users expressed concern over what the campaign billboard may represent, frustration also spread across Hebrew-language social media posts, with some Israelis criticising Eisenkot for taking Israel’s political matters onto an international stage. "This sign is... only fueling the conspiracy that Israel is 'conquering' Cyprus," said one user. "Take down the sign." The Cyprus Mail reported that Niche Advertising, the group responsible for letting out the billboard to advertisers, said it did not politically endorse Eisenkot nor his party, adding that the space had been purchased as a commercial booking. Growing popularity Eisenkot, a former Israeli army chief and minister in Benjamin Netanyahu’s cabinet in 2023-2024, formulated the widely criticised Dahieh doctrine , named after Beirut's southern suburbs, which advises the use of disproportionate force against civilians and civilian infrastructure in areas where armed groups are alleged to operate. Eisenkot announced his election campaign as the leader of the Yashar party (meaning straight ahead in Hebrew) in June, promising to expand the Israeli army and criticising the “chaos” caused by the Israeli government in the wake of the 7 October 2023 attacks on Israel by the armed wing of Hamas. Israel raid of Gaza-bound flotilla near Cyprus sparks outrage Read More » He also promised to commission an inquiry into the attacks, a popular move among Israelis, and to push for universal enlisting in the military. This would include Palestinian citizens of Israel, who are generally not legally required to serve, and ultra-Orthodox Jews, overturning exemptions for Haredi men. This has thrust Eisenkot into the top spot among Israeli voters, with a recent poll aired on Channel 12 revealing that 43 percent of respondents viewed him as the favourable candidate for prime minister, compared with 34 percent backing Netanyahu. Yashar is predicted to win 23 seats in the Knesset, and Netanyahu’s Likud is forecast to win 22. Haaretz reported last week that Netanyahu’s government was looking into finding ways to limit the number of Israelis living abroad from returning to the country for the October elections, amid concerns that they would vote for opposition parties. As Netanyahu and his opposition fight over the future of Israel’s leadership, potential voters living abroad have become a key battleground. Middle East Eye reached out to Eisenkot and the High Commission of Cyprus in London for comment, but did not receive a response by time of publication. Israeli Elections Trending Post Date Override 0 Update Date Mon, 05/04/2020 - 21:29 Update Date Override 0
August 5, 2026
Bill Oddie, wildlife presenter and star of British comedy series The Goodies, dies at 85
UK television personality Bill Oddie, best known for his role in the television comedy series The Goodies and presenter of nature programmes, has died aged 85, his agent said on Monday. “Bill was a multitalented celebrity – wildlife presenter, broadcaster, comedian, writer, songwriter, musician and conservationist,” Oddie’s agent David Foster said in a statement. “Yet it was never fame that he valued. Instead he encouraged us to respect and protect the environment. “He taught us the wonder of...
August 5, 2026
Why tying a Saudi nuclear deal to Israel is a strategic mistake
Why tying a Saudi nuclear deal to Israel is a strategic mistake Submitted by Dr Ahmed Altuwaijri on Mon, 07/27/2026 - 14:51 Saudi Arabia has made Palestinian statehood a non-negotiable condition for normalising with Israel, and demanding Riyadh reverse it for a nuclear deal risks weakening US influence US President Donald Trump and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman at the US-Saudi Investment Forum in Washington on 19 November 2025 (Brendan Smialowski/AFP) Off The future of US-Saudi Arabia relations may hinge less on grand declarations than on Washington's ability to distinguish between strategic interests and political aspirations. If the United States conditions a civilian nuclear agreement with Saudi Arabia on the kingdom's immediate accession to the Abraham Accords , it would be collapsing two fundamentally different policy objectives into a single diplomatic test. Such an approach may appear to increase American leverage. In practice, it is more likely to diminish US influence while accelerating the emergence of a more multipolar Middle East. The issue is not whether normalisation between Saudi Arabia and Israel would serve regional interests. There are persuasive arguments that it eventually could. Rather, the question is whether Washington can realistically expect Riyadh to abandon a position it has articulated with remarkable consistency for more than two decades: that formal normalisation must follow – not precede – a credible pathway towards Palestinian statehood . Saudi Arabia's position has often been misunderstood as a bargaining tactic. It is better understood as a strategic doctrine. The kingdom remains the principal sponsor of the 2002 Arab Peace Initiative , which offered Israel comprehensive normalisation in exchange for withdrawal from occupied territories and the establishment of a Palestinian state. Since the outbreak of the Gaza war , Saudi officials have reiterated that this framework remains the basis of their policy. The consistency of these statements suggests they are enduring strategic commitments, not temporary negotiating positions. Ignoring this reality risks misunderstanding the evolution of Saudi Arabia's foreign policy under Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. Over the past decade, Riyadh has demonstrated an unprecedented willingness to redefine its economic model, diversify its international partnerships and pursue regional de-escalation. It has restored diplomatic relations with Iran and expanded engagement with China and India . At home, it has pursued an ambitious transformation through Vision 2030 . Yet this pragmatism has not translated into flexibility on the Palestinian question. On the contrary, Saudi leaders appear to view support for Palestinian statehood as an essential component of both regional legitimacy and domestic political credibility. Limits of US leverage From Washington's perspective, a civilian nuclear agreement serves strategic purposes that extend well beyond bilateral relations. Such an agreement would institutionalise long-standing technological cooperation, strengthen non-proliferation safeguards and reinforce American influence over the development of Saudi Arabia's civilian nuclear infrastructure. The question facing Washington is not whether Saudi Arabia will pursue nuclear development but how central a role the US will play in shaping that process These objectives have intrinsic value irrespective of the pace of Arab-Israeli normalisation. Indeed, the strategic costs of abandoning such cooperation may prove greater than many policymakers assume. Saudi Arabia's interest in developing civilian nuclear capabilities is unlikely to disappear because negotiations with Washington stall. The more probable outcome is that Riyadh will diversify its partnerships, seeking technology, investment and expertise from alternative suppliers. In an increasingly competitive international environment, the question facing Washington is therefore not whether Saudi Arabia will pursue nuclear development but how central a role the US will play in shaping that process. The dilemma reflects a transformation of international politics. For much of the post-Cold War era, the United States could assume that its partners had few viable strategic alternatives. That assumption is becoming increasingly difficult to sustain. China's expanding economic presence across the Gulf, Russia 's continuing regional engagement and the growing diplomatic activism of middle powers have created a more competitive geopolitical environment. American leverage remains considerable, but it is no longer exclusive. Israeli press review: US-Saudi nuclear deal slammed as Netanyahu's 'failure' Read More » Given these shifts, the use of conditionality deserves careful reconsideration. Conditional diplomacy has long been an instrument of American foreign policy. It succeeded when the conditions demanded were seen as attainable and broadly compatible with the recipient state's own calculations. It is considerably less effective when it requires governments to reverse publicly declared positions that they regard as central to their national interests or political legitimacy. The humanitarian consequences of the Gaza conflict further complicate this picture. Across the Arab world, public opinion has become substantially more attentive to Palestinian suffering and sceptical of diplomatic initiatives perceived to sideline Palestinian political rights. Regardless of how governments balance public opinion against strategic considerations, no serious assessment of regional diplomacy can ignore the political environment created by the conflict. Normalisation on Saudi terms None of this implies that normalisation between Saudi Arabia and Israel has become impossible. On the contrary, Saudi leaders have repeatedly signalled that they continue to envision normalisation within the framework of a comprehensive political settlement. The sequencing, however, matters profoundly. Expecting Riyadh to normalise first while postponing meaningful movement towards Palestinian statehood reverses the logic that Saudi policymakers have consistently embraced. For Washington, the lesson concerns the nature of influence in a more plural international order. Influence derives not merely from military power or economic leverage but from the ability to align strategic partnerships with the enduring interests of allies. Follow Middle East Eye's live coverage of Israel's genocide in Gaza Policies that ignore those interests may produce symbolic demonstrations of resolve, but they seldom produce durable diplomatic outcomes. The United States has long benefited from a strategic partnership with Saudi Arabia because both countries recognised areas of mutual interest despite significant political differences. Preserving that partnership in the 21st century will require the same strategic realism that sustained it in the 20th. The challenge confronting US policymakers is not to maximise pressure but to maximise strategic advantage. In a Middle East that is interconnected, economically diversified and geopolitically competitive, those two goals are no longer synonymous. Trump backtracks on Saudi nuclear deal, demands Israel normalisation Read More » The United States and Saudi Arabia have maintained one of the Middle East's most consequential strategic partnerships for more than eight decades. That relationship has survived wars, oil crises, terrorism and profound political change because it has generally rested on shared strategic interests rather than ideological conformity. A civilian nuclear agreement should be evaluated on its own merits: its contribution to energy security, technological cooperation, economic development and nuclear non-proliferation. Tying it to an issue on which Saudi Arabia has consistently articulated a non-negotiable position risks sacrificing practical cooperation for unattainable political leverage. Diplomacy succeeds when it recognises political realities rather than attempts to wish them away. The task facing Washington is not to compel Saudi Arabia to abandon its stated principles, but to create conditions in which regional peace and strategic cooperation are both achievable. Conditioning one upon the immediate surrender of the other is unlikely to accomplish either objective. The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Eye. US-Saudi Arabia relations Opinion Post Date Override 0 Update Date Mon, 05/04/2020 - 21:29 Update Date Override 0
August 5, 2026