Catalogue
Scenario archive
Open feed of trigger events. Click a card to see the chain, A/B/C probabilities and the fact-check after the horizon resolves.
How Israel uses settler-soldier terror to colonise the West Bank
Settler attacks are not isolated incidents. They are all part of a strategy to grab land and colonise.
August 5, 2026
Mapping Israeli settler violence in the West Bank
Israeli settlers have set fire to a mosque in the West Bank village of Qusra, and continued violent attacks.
August 5, 2026
Chile captures fugitive convicted of singer Victor Jara's murder under Pinochet
Nelson Haase was one of those convicted over the kidnap and murder of folk singer Victor Jara after Chile's military coup in 1973.
August 5, 2026
Identical Roper twins win gymnastics bronze medals
The identical Roper twins create a piece of Wales team history as they both win Commonwealth Games bronze in Glasgow.
August 5, 2026
India Summons Ukraine Envoy After Black Sea Attack Kills Sailor
India summoned the Ukrainian envoy after a sailor from the country was killed in an attack on a vessel in the Black Sea on July 18, as seafarers from the country continue to get caught in conflict zones.
August 5, 2026
Amazon’s trying to launch a global satellite cellphone network in 2028
Amazon filed an FCC application on Saturday to launch a new Leo satellite constellation that will provide direct-to-device satellite service for "voice, messaging, data, and emergency services." If approved, Amazon will begin deploying the new constellation of 5,105 satellites in 2028. It says it plans to partner with mobile network operators to offer direct-to-device satellite […]
August 5, 2026
Trump says he is ready for military action if Iran talks fail, report says
Trump says he is ready for military action if Iran talks fail, report says US President Donald Trump said on Monday Washington was in "very deep talks with Iran" and warned that he is ready for "strong military action" if diplomacy failed. "Not much time. Either it goes fast or not at all," Trump told Axios when asked how long he was willing to give for talks.
August 5, 2026
UK funeral director faces jail over bodies left ‘on racks’
A British funeral director faced prison on Monday over a scandal that saw bodies left “stored on racks” and uncremated while relatives were handed other people’s ashes, sparking calls for better regulation of the industry. An ex-employee described Robert Bush’s funeral parlour as a “horror scene”, prosecutor Chris Paxton said at the start of a five-day sentencing hearing. Police who searched his premises after a tip-off found 31 bodies in a cold storage area that should have been cremated months...
August 5, 2026
The lessons of the WNBA’s triumphant All-Star Weekend: ‘get off the ’net’ and lean into the joy
The buildup to this All-Star Game had some headaches, but the festivities in Chicago – with a Barack Obama cameo and a record crowd – were a rousing high Sign up for our free weekly WNBA 30 newsletter If your perceptions of what the WNBA is like in 2026 are largely shaped by narratives derived from and driven by social media, the scene in Chicago at WNBA All-Star Weekend would have proved a surprise. The mood Friday morning at the Barack Obama Presidential Center was downright ebullient. And, sure, to a degree that was because No 44 himself clocked in for about an hour of practice. The former president briefly showed off some moves in his jeans and loafers after he was surprise-attacked by the New York Liberty’s Jonquel Jones. Continue reading...
August 5, 2026
Bab al-Mandeb: US war on Iran gives Houthis new leverage over Saudi Arabia
Bab al-Mandeb: US war on Iran gives Houthis new leverage over Saudi Arabia Submitted by Elis Gjevori on Mon, 07/27/2026 - 14:52 With Hormuz contested, Yemeni threats against Bab al-Mandeb place Riyadh’s remaining oil route under pressure University students march with Palestinian and Yemeni flags over depictions of the Israeli, US and UK flags during a pro-Houthi demonstration at Sanaa University in Yemen's capital, 22 July 2026 (Mohammed Huwais/AFP) Off When Yemen’s Houthis threatened a “maritime embargo” on Saudi ports last week, the risk of war returning to the Arabian Peninsula - and of Bab al-Mandeb becoming the second major oil chokepoint under threat - suddenly became real. The escalation began after Saudi Arabia attacked Yemen’s Sanaa International Airport more than two weeks ago, potentially pulling the country deeper into the expanding US-Israeli war on Iran. The attack followed the Houthis’ decision to reopen Sanaa airport to direct flights from Iran . These would have been the first such flights since 2015. Riyadh would have viewed them as a major red line and a sign of growing Iranian influence, potentially including the direct transfer of weapons. “But just as direct Sanaa-Iran flights were a red line for the Saudis and its allied Yemeni government, the attack on Sanaa international airport was a red line for the Houthis,” Hamish Kinnear, principal analyst for the Middle East and North Africa at global risk analyst Maplecroft, told Middle East Eye. The Houthis, officially known as Ansar Allah, have since said they launched missiles at the Saudi cities of Jazan and Yanbu. They also reported targeting two Saudi oil ships last week, with Riyadh confirming one attack in the Red Sea. Saudi Arabia has diverted more than 70 percent of its crude exports from the Strait of Hormuz to the Red Sea port of Yanbu following the US-Israeli attack on Iran and the latter's blockade of Hormuz. “We will not hesitate to expand our movements and escalate our steps based on the developments of the situation in the coming hours and days,” Houthi military spokesperson Yahya Saree said. 'To be quiet might be misconstrued as a sign of weakness, which the Saudis are not - they have the firepower and the will to use it' - Khaled Almaeena, Saudi political analyst The renewed fighting threatens the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, the narrow passage connecting the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden. Before shipping companies began diverting vessels around the Red Sea, it carried about 12 percent of global seaborne oil trade and 8 percent of global liquefied natural gas trade. Shipping through the Bab al-Mandeb has not come to a complete halt, however, with some tankers carrying crude to Asia still passing through the waterway. “This indicates that the Houthis are open to negotiations with the Saudis and the Saudi-backed Yemeni government, which has also suggested that it does not want to expand the confrontation,” noted Kinnear. Any sustained disruption would place a second major oil chokepoint under pressure after the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Arabia’s narrowing options Khaled Almaeena, a Saudi political and media analyst and former editor-in-chief of Arab News, told Middle East Eye that “the escalation was totally unexpected”. “That front [with Yemen] was quiet. Saudi Arabia had exercised great restraint in the adjoining region and the unnecessary Iranian provocations,” said Almaeena. 'If the Houthis would like to negotiate peace its up to them because the kingdom would like to avoid unnecessary bloodshed' - Khaled Almaeena, Saudi political analyst Houthi threats against Saudi ports on the Red Sea coast and shipping now place that alternative route in danger. Asian refiners could face a costly diversion, moving oil from Yanbu through the Suez Canal into the Mediterranean before sending it around Africa’s Cape of Good Hope and back towards Asia. “[Riyadh] does not want conflagration, however, there is a seriousness to the situation now,” noted Almaeena. The 60-day ceasefire established under the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding on 17 June remained fragile from the outset. It finally collapsed after Washington breached Article 5 of the memorandum, which states that “Iran will make arrangements” to restore traffic through the straits during the ceasefire while negotiating the route’s future with Oman. The United States sought to circumvent that provision by creating its own route through Omani territorial waters without consulting Iran, as required under the agreement. Washington’s breach and subsequent resumption of the war transformed the Houthis’ position: with the Strait of Hormuz already contested, pressure on Bab al-Mandeb gave the group greater leverage over both the US and Saudi Arabia. Riyadh has so far avoided joining the war on Iran directly, but continued Houthi attacks could make that restraint harder to sustain. Conflict in Yemen transforms the lives of long-marginalised Muhamasheen minority Read More » “To be quiet might be misconstrued as a sign of weakness which the Saudis are not,” said Almaeena, adding that “they have the firepower and the will to use it”. The Houthis have proved in recent years that they are difficult opponents to break. US President Donald Trump intensified attacks on the Houthis in March 2025 before withdrawing from the campaign by May and saying the group had completely “capitulated”. It had not. Trump discovered, as Saudi Arabia had before him, that bombing was unlikely to force the Houthis into submission or isolate them. “The new Houthi threat to Saudi shipping through the Bab el-Mandeb is clearly aligned with the wider Iranian goal of disrupting shipping and global energy markets to maintain pressure on the US - even if it isn’t a case of the Houthis simply taking orders from Tehran,” said Kinnear. The threat therefore appears designed less to close Bab al-Mandeb completely than to demonstrate that the Houthis can raise the economic cost for Riyadh whenever they choose. The Houthis have much to gain from a limited and controlled escalation with Saudi Arabia. Iran has shown that it can use the Strait of Hormuz to extract concessions that could help fund its postwar reconstruction. The Houthis now hold something potentially just as valuable: the ability to threaten Saudi Arabia’s remaining route to global oil markets. “If the Houthis would like to negotiate peace its up to them because the kingdom would like to avoid unnecessary bloodshed,” said Almaeena. War on Iran News Post Date Override 0 Update Date Mon, 05/04/2020 - 21:19 Update Date Override 0
August 5, 2026
Why a new war in Yemen could be different for the Houthis
Recent developments strengthen anti-Houthi forces in Yemen as signs indicate that a re-eruption of the war is imminent.
August 5, 2026
Opinion: Karim Khan dared to hold Israel to account - and that's why he was brought down
Opinion: Karim Khan dared to hold Israel to account - and that's why he was brought down There was a revealing post in the welter of reaction that followed the all too predictable dismissal of the Chief Prosecutor Karim Khan by the International Criminal Court (ICC) on Friday. It was made by Danny Danon, Israel ’s ambassador to the UN, who warned New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani . Mamdani had just called the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu a war criminal who should be arrested the next time he arrives on US soil, although Mamdani admitted he did not have the powers to do so. Danon repeated the claim - that now appears to be established as fact - that Khan used the warrants against Netanyahu and his former defence minister to cover up his alleged sexual misdemeanours. Read more: Karim Khan dared to hold Israel to account - and that's why he was brought down Opinion by David Hearst International Criminal Court Prosecutor Karim Khan, attends a United Nations Security Council meeting in New York City on 27 January 2025 (AFP)
August 5, 2026
Russia strongly condemns Ukraine’s terror attacks on south Russia — diplomat
A total of five people, including a minor, were killed
August 5, 2026
Israel to release 60 Palestinian detainees in largest release since October
Israel to release 60 Palestinian detainees in largest release since October Israel is expected to release 60 Palestinian detainees to the Gaza Strip on Monday, the Israeli military and Palestinian Prisoners' Media Office said, according to Haaretz. This would be the largest release of Palestinian detainees since October's ceasefire deal. Unlike those released as part of the October agreement, the detainees being freed now are not considered “terrorists”, the Israeli army said.
August 5, 2026
EU shirks own values by ignoring Kiev’s crimes in Donbass — Russian envoy
Russian Ambassador to Italy Alexey Paramonov emphasized that no European leader had stood up to defend the civilians and children of Donbass since 2014
August 5, 2026
‘I would be ashamed to have written any part of this’: Odyssey translator Emily Wilson attacks Nolan blockbuster
Wilson, whose work on Homer’s epic was praised by Nolan, said his film was grandiose and superficial with ‘nothing convincing to say’ Emily Wilson, the classicist whose 2017 translation of Homer’s Odyssey was cited by Christopher Nolan in early publicity for his hugely successful adaptation of the poem, has roundly criticised the film, saying “it has nothing convincing to say” and that its “lacks psychological, emotional, political and ethical depth”. In a scathing essay for the London Review of Books, Wilson writes: “I had hoped that Nolan’s affinity with these Homeric themes might push him to new creative heights, and enable him to conjure more believable characters. But The Odyssey features his usual combination of grandiosity and superficiality … the film’s vision is too confused, its characters too underdeveloped, to deliver what it half-promises in terms of big ideas – although it is very good at conveying big bangs and big giants.” Continue reading...
August 5, 2026
Tariffs didn’t bring manufacturing jobs back to the US
Today, I’m talking with Evan Smith, who is cofounder and CEO of Altana, a company that develops software tools to manage big, messy supply chain networks around the world. We last had Evan on in early 2025 to talk about how Trump’s first few waves of tariffs were starting to affect global trade and what […]
August 5, 2026
Trump, tariffs and ties with China at stake in Brazilian presidential race
With less than three months to go until Brazil’s presidential election, China is closely watching a high-stakes political duel between a Beijing-friendly incumbent and his pro-Washington challenger. Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, who maintains close ties with Beijing, is seeking a fourth non-consecutive term. His rival, Senator Flavio Bolsonaro – son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, who was jailed last year for attempting a military coup – was confirmed on Saturday as the...
August 5, 2026
'I spent the night coughing': Wildfire smoke leaves Bordeaux residents struggling to breathe
A dense blanket of smoke has hung over Bordeaux since last Friday as a massive wildfire burns its way through southwestern France. As the flames creep closer to the city, FRANCE 24 met residents stunned by the scale of the disaster and fearful of what comes next.
August 5, 2026
Mediators achieve progress in bringing US, Iran back to negotiating table — AP
A mediation group headed by Qatar and Pakistan is working to bridge the gap between Washington and Tehran to return to the previously agreed ceasefire
August 5, 2026
Palestinian woman delivers stillborn baby as Israeli soldiers delay ambulance at West Bank checkpoint
Palestinian woman delivers stillborn baby as Israeli soldiers delay ambulance at West Bank checkpoint A Palestinian woman delivered a stillborn baby in an ambulance after the vehicle was delayed by Israeli soldiers at a checkpoint in the occupied West Bank on Monday. The 28-year-old woman was six months pregnant and unconscious when medics collected her from her home in the village of Qaryout, south of the city of Nablus, Palestinian medic Bashar Qaryouti told AFP. "She was suffering from very heavy bleeding and her condition was extremely critical," Qaryouti said. The entrance to one nearby village was closed, forcing the ambulance to take dirt tracks through olive groves before reaching the Awarta checkpoint, where a gate was shut, and a long queue of vehicles had formed. Israeli soldiers emerged from a nearby watchtower and ordered Qaryouti to turn off the ambulance's power. Qaryouti said he explained that the vehicle's medical equipment was being used to keep a patient alive, but they forced him to switch the vehicle off. As the ambulance remained stranded, the woman's condition worsened, and the nurse accompanying her was forced to deliver the baby inside the vehicle. "The baby was stillborn," he said. After waiting for more than 30 minutes, the soldiers returned the crew's identity cards and allowed the ambulance to continue. When they reached the hospital "the mother was rushed into surgery to stop the bleeding", Qaryouti said.
August 5, 2026
Ukraine continues war of terror with strike on recreational infrastructure — diplomat
The attack left 12 civilians dead, including four minors
August 5, 2026
Andrew Tate’s extradition challenge could last almost a year, lawyers say
Controversial social media influencer faces charges in UK of rape and sexual assault, along with brother Tristan
August 5, 2026
Saudi Arabia says it intercepted drones from Iraq as Houthis target oil sites
Saudi Arabia said it intercepted drones launched by Iran-backed militias from Iraq targeting oil facilities and Riyadh on Monday, while Yemen's Houthi rebels claimed separate drone strikes on the kingdom's oil infrastructure. The attacks mark a renewed escalation involving Saudi Arabia despite a recent lull in fighting between the United States and Iran.
August 5, 2026