Catalogue

Scenario archive

Open feed of trigger events. Click a card to see the chain, A/B/C probabilities and the fact-check after the horizon resolves.

Naturalseverity 9

Wildfires burn record area in France as Europe’s risk intensifies

Severe fire season in northern hemisphere also sees fast-moving outbreaks in Scotland and Canada

July 29, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 6

IMF warns Burnham he cannot afford to boost public spending

Fund urges ‘cautious approach’ to fiscal pressures

July 29, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 8

Zelenskyy says he hears protesters' demands: I haven't made final decision yet

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said it is right that Ukrainians are able to hold peaceful protests and express their views even during the war, adding that he has not yet reached the conclusion on the issue they have raised.

July 29, 2026

Socialseverity 6

Jump Trading Doubles Team to Ride Record Prediction Market Boom

As prediction markets draw record trading around events like the World Cup, Jump Trading Group is betting the once-niche contracts are becoming a lasting corner of Wall Street.

July 29, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 6

Washington is ready to 'upend the rules-based world order' HRW chief says

In an interview with FRANCE 24, Human Rights Watch executive director Philippe Bolopion says the Trump administration has "launched an all-out assault on human rights" at home and abroad. He calls the Fort Bliss ICE detention centre a "human rights catastrophe" and warns Washington is ready to "upend the rules-based world order".

July 29, 2026

Militaryseverity 6

Russian troops approach second line of Ukrainian defense on way to Orekhov — official

According to Igor Kimakovsky, the Russian fighters have closely approached the Ukrainian defense line near the Verkhyaya Tersa settlement

July 29, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 8

IN BRIEF: What we know about death of Zaporozhye nuke chief engineer from Ukrainian strike

On July 15, Ukraine struck a service vehicle of the nuclear power plant with a drone, killing Alexander Yakovlev and his driver

July 29, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 6

US hosts global meet on ‘far-left terror’: Who’s attending, why it matters

More than 65 countries expected to address 'renewed threats' from 'far-left political violence and terrorism'.

July 29, 2026

Militaryseverity 9

US strikes first tanker with missiles as it enforces new blockade

The US military targeted an unladen oil tanker which it said was heading for the key Iranian oil terminal on Kharg island.

July 29, 2026

Socialseverity 7

60 years of hurt - England's World Cup wait in numbers

England’s wait for another World Cup triumph wait told through the football, people and moments that have shaped the world since 1966.

July 29, 2026

Socialseverity 6

'A true miracle of destiny' - Messi and Yamal's incredible first meeting

BBC Sport explores a bond between two world-class footballers from different generations who appear bound by destiny

July 29, 2026

Militaryseverity 6

Zelenskyy explains decision to replace Fedorov: there are problems and there is no unity

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, commenting on the planned changes at the Defence Ministry, has acknowledged that Defence Minister Mykhailo Fedorov and Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi have been unable to work together effectively and that problems on the battlefield, in military brigades and with mobilisation remain unresolved.

July 29, 2026

Militaryseverity 9

JD Vance says Epstein had connections to CIA and Mossad

JD Vance says Epstein had connections to CIA and Mossad Submitted by Oscar Rickett on Thu, 07/16/2026 - 11:59 US vice president tells podcaster Joe Rogan there is an 'extremely well-funded' Israel-linked campaign to derail Iran negotiations US Vice President JD Vance speaks at This is the Turning Point Tour at the University of Georgia in Athens, Georgia, US, April 14, 2026 (Reuters) Off The paedophile financier Jeffrey Epstein was connected to the “highest levels” of US and Israeli intelligence, JD Vance said on Monday. “He clearly had connections to the upper, the highest levels of American intelligence,” the US Vice President told podcaster Joe Rogan, in relation to Epstein. “He clearly had connections to the highest levels of Israeli intelligence.” Told by Rogan that “most people think he was Mossad”, Israel's external intelligence agency, Vance replied: “Mossad or CIA or some other deep state, whether in America or Israel or some other country… or both.” The vice president, who describes himself as “an OG Epstein conspiracy theorist”, said that Epstein’s connections were to what he described as “elements of the Israeli deep state that were left of centre”, most notably former Israeli prime minister Ehud Barak. “It wasn’t like he was super connected to the right of centre of Israeli politics,” Vance said. There has been much speculation about whether Epstein was working for Israeli, US or even Russian intelligence. The convicted sex offender, who hosted a slew of rich and powerful people on his private island and was connected to former US president Bill Clinton, pro-Israel billionaire Les Wexner, British politician Peter Mandelson and Queen Elizabeth’s son Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor, appeared to have accumulated a vast amount of compromising information over many years. 'There are certain influencers in America who are being paid in order to attack the deal [with Iran]' - JD Vance Asked earlier this year whether they considered Epstein to have been a Mossad asset, an advisor to the Indian government told Middle East Eye: “100 percent”. There is, though, no categorical proof that Epstein worked actively for an intelligence agency. The Epstein files do, however, document the financier’s funding of Israeli groups, including Friends of the Israeli Defence Forces, and the settler organisation the Jewish National Fund, as well as his ties to members of Israel’s overseas intelligence services. An FBI memo produced by the bureau’s Los Angeles field office in October 2020 reported that one of its sources had come to believe Epstein “was a co-opted Mossad agent”. According to the document, the disgraced paedophile was described as having been “trained as a spy” for Israel’s intelligence service. Israel-backed campaign to derail US-Iran deal In his interview with Rogan, Vance – who appeared to be positioning himself as a successor to Donald Trump and a presidential candidate in 2028 - described a “very discreet extremely well-funded campaign to try to derail the negotiation and try to derail the derail the deal” with Iran. Vance has spearheaded negotiations with Iran, resulting in the memorandum of understanding signed by the two counries last month. The deal has fallen apart and the US and Iran are once more exchanging strikes. “There are certain influencers in America who are being paid in order to attack the deal,” he said, mentioning funding that came from Israel. The vice president referenced a Time magazine article from this week that details an “Israeli influence operation targeting the MAGA base”. Brad Parscale, a digital advisor on Donald Trump’s 2020 presidential campaign, is reportedly being paid $1.5m a month to run this operation. According to Vance, the Time article “lists a bunch of people who have quite literally been paid by a former Trump campaign person, who is himself paid by certain elements within the Israeli government, and those people are attacking me quite viciously.” “They want to continue the military campaign.” Speaking to Joe Rogan, US Vice President JD Vance said that some officials within the Israeli government are trying to manipulate American public opinion to derail the peace negotiations and prolong the war on Iran “indefinitely” pic.twitter.com/gFxuj8OL08 — Middle East Eye (@MiddleEastEye) July 16, 2026 “I know beyond a shadow of a doubt that there have been people within the Israeli government who are trying to, like, actually shift us away from that policy because they want to continue the military campaign,” Vance said. The vice president said that "that are people... who are super-hawkish in the American sysetem who have attacked the deal and frankly in some ways tried to derail the deal. And what I always say to those people is, what is your proposal?" Vance described himself as “the reasonable moderate” in “this massive pro-Israel, anti-Israel debate in the United States of America. He said he had been widely accused of being an antisemite, “which is insane”. When asked if he thought the US would have engaged in the most recent war with Iran were it not for Israeli influence, Vance said, “yes, yes I do.” “I think the president, separate from any influence from Israel, believes very strongly, and again I agree with this, that Iran should not have a nuclear weapon,” Vance said. “The idea that Donald Trump is being blackmailed is crazy to me,” he said, when asked by Rogan if Israel was using the Epstein files – or some other compromising information – to get Trump to do what they wanted. Epstein Files News Post Date Override 0 Update Date Mon, 05/04/2020 - 21:19 Update Date Override 0

July 29, 2026

Socialseverity 7

World Cup: is English football cursed?

It will be Argentina defending its title in the World Cup final on July 19 in the United States. Lionel Messi captained his team to victory over England with Argentina scoring in the final moments of the match. It’s a story that keeps repeating itself for England the inventors of football — who haven’t reached a World Cup final since 1966.

July 29, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 6

French PM goes to Rabat in crucial visit for bilateral ties

The French Prime Minister along with a retinue of officials has arrived in Morocco. The choice for his first overseas trip is significant - as Paris looks to turn a diplomatic rapprochement into a broader strategic partnership with Rabat. If all goes well - Morocco's Mohammed VI could potentially visit France. New French investments and partnerships — particularly in the defence and civil nuclear sectors— are on the table.

July 29, 2026

Naturalseverity 7

Canadian wildfires: Train surrounded by flames

🇨🇦 A video that went viral on social media showed a Canadian train surrounded by flames near Armstrong, #Ontario. 🔥 Around 835 active fires were burning in #Canada on Wednesday and 112 were considered out of control, according to the government.

July 29, 2026

Socialseverity 6

Italian officials handed jail terms for Genoa bridge disaster that killed 43

The ex-head of Italy's motorway operator Giovanni Castellucci was handed a 12-year term over the 2018 bridge collapse.

July 29, 2026

Militaryseverity 9

Iran strikes US base in Jordan as American bombardment continues

Iran strikes US base in Jordan as American bombardment continues Iran 's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said it struck a US base in Jordan as American strikes continued to hit the country. The IRGC said it carried out the Jordan attack in retaliation for a strike launched from the base that hit "the vicinity of a children's cancer hospital". US bases and facilities in Kuwait , Bahrain and Jordan were also targeted by Iranian drone strikes. Meanwhile, seven hours of US raids on Wednesday hit dozens of targets, with the Iranian army saying seven personnel had been killed in a missile strike at a barracks close to the southeastern city of Iranshahr. An Iranian military spokesman warned that Iran would "crush" regional infrastructure if the United States attacks Iran's key facilities. Read more: Iran strikes US base in Jordan as American bombardment continues Aircraft fly in formation over the USS George HW Bush in the Arabian Sea on 30 June (US Navy/AFP)

July 29, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 6

Argentina come from behind to beat England 2-1

The defending champions strike again. Led 1-0 after Anthony Gordon opened the score for England, Argentina kept believing and turned the game on its head. Guided by Lionel Messi, Lionel Scaloni's men sealed a 2-1 victory after an injury-time winner saw them book a spot against Spain in the final. England manager Thomas Tuchel opted to defend after taking the lead, a choice that backfired as the Three Lions' time in the United States comes to an end.

July 29, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 6

France adopts bill legalising assisted dying for adults

French lawmakers on July 19 adopted a bill ​that will create a legal right to assisted dying for adults with incurable illnesses, capping an intense ethical and political debate. The law would enable patients suffering from incurable and life-threatening illnesses to request lethal medication under strict medical supervision. The text will now be presented to the constitutional court, which has up to a month to approve it.

July 29, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 6

Japan: Growing number of young workers revive culture of corporate machismo

In Japan, a new generation of office workers is reviving a bygone corporate culture. Around the world, Gen-Z has garnered a reputation as delicate, even reticent employees. A growing cohort of young Japanese salarymen - and women - are embracing a work culture some are calling "corporate machismo" - a hard-charging, zealous approach to business that some see as the key to the country's post-World War 2 economic boom.

July 29, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 6

Palestinians in Gaza search through homes destroyed by Israeli strikes

Palestinians are inspecting the damage in Nuseirat after Israeli strikes reduced their homes to rubble.

July 29, 2026

Socialseverity 6

Graham one of 14 Scotland changes for Fiji

Scotland have named an almost entirely changed team for Saturday's Nations Championship game against Fiji at Murrayfield.

July 29, 2026

Socialseverity 6

US coastguard cutters have a South China Sea mission. Will it make a difference?

A US decision to redeploy half a dozen small coastguard ships from the Middle East to the South China Sea is unlikely to alter the balance of power in the disputed waters, Chinese analysts said. In a statement on Wednesday, the US Coast Guard said it had moved its Expeditionary Cutter Squadron to the western Pacific to conduct “maritime security operations and cooperative maritime activities with allies and partner nations in the region, in response to national security...

July 29, 2026

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