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Geopolitical··Severity 8

“Zero Problems” Abroad, Plenty at Home: Reassessing al Sharaa’s Leadership in Syria

In 2025, Rob Geist Pinfold wrote, “The March Massacres Show That Syria Urgently Needs Solutions, Not Sanctions,” in which he argued that sanctions relief was a major way the West could positively engage with the new Syrian government. A year later, after sanctions relief materialized and the United States removed Syria from its list of terrorism sponsors, we asked him to revisit his arguments and reassess President Ahmed al Sharaa’s leadership, both foreign and domestic. Image: Voice of America via Wikimedia CommonsIn your 2025 article, you argued that one way the West should engage with post-Assad Syria was through sanctions relief. The post “Zero Problems” Abroad, Plenty at Home: Reassessing al Sharaa’s Leadership in Syria appeared first on War on the Rocks .

Scenario chain

Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.

A

Эскалация

81%

Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.

Primary source: War on the Rocks

Ваши вероятности A/B/C

C 33%

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