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Military··Severity 9

Morning recap

Morning recap Good morning Middle East Eye readers, If you're just joining us, here are key developments from across the region: • Donald Trump has said that the Iran war was "small potatoes" for the United States, while warning American military may hit Iran's Pickaxe Mountain. • The Lebanese health ministry says that Israeli strikes in southern and eastern Lebanon late on Friday killed at least three people and injured 23. • Iran will conduct “pre-emptive operations” wherever it perceives a threat, army spokesman Brigadier-General Mohammad Akrami Nia said. • The US State Department said it had approved the potential sale of Joint Direct Attack Munitions-Extend Range to Saudi Arabia for an estimated $5 billion. • Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz fell sharply on August 31, with five confirmed crossings, down 50 percent from 10 a day earlier, according to the latest update by maritime data firm Kpler. • Former Israeli prime minister, Naftali Bennett, has once again branded Qatar an "enemy," repeating his call for Israel to take action against it. • Iranian army spokesman Brigadier General Mohammad Akraminia has said that the US and Israel suffered a “major defeat” in their latest aggression against Iran, and “failed” to achieve their stated objectives. • US government investigators have subjected 50 members of the American military’s Joint Staff to polygraph tests over Iran war leaks to journalists. • The United States, Britain, France and Germany are seeking a resolution by the UN nuclear watchdog's board next week reporting Iran to the UN Security Council for the first time in 20 years. • Palestinian media has reported land seizure, vandalism and raids by the Israeli military and settlers in the occupied West Bank. • Tunisian police have arrested prominent journalist Mohamed Yousfi, an outspoken critic of President Kais Saied.

Scenario chain

Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.

A

Эскалация

80%

Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.

Primary source: Middle East Eye

Ваши вероятности A/B/C

C 33%

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