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Geopolitical··Severity 8

Majority of Poles believe Russian provocations against Poland are likely

A SW Research poll finds that 64.9% of Poles consider warnings about possible further Russian provocations against Poland credible.

Scenario chain

Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.

A

Эскалация

62%

Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.

Primary source: Ukrainska Pravda

Ваши вероятности A/B/C

C 33%

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