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Military··Severity 9

Morning recap

Morning recap Good morning, Middle East Eye readers, If you're just joining us, here are key developments from across the region: * US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth says the military can attack Iran’s entire oil tanker fleet, after Washington announced strikes on three Iranian vessels following attacks on US warships. * Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy says it struck three oil tankers travelling through “unauthorised” routes in the Strait of Hormuz and three US-affiliated vessels “in other areas”. * Iran’s unified military command has warned that it could intensify and broaden attacks on US naval vessels if Washington maintains its maritime blockade and continues the “harassment of Iranian ships”. * IRGC said it had fired several ballistic missiles at a US aircraft carrier and a US Navy destroyer that it said were harassing Iranian ships and participating in an ongoing naval blockade of Iran. * Fighting between Yemen's Saudi-backed government forces and the country's Houthi rebels killed more than 60 people on Saturday, including civilians. * At least two people have been killed in an Israeli strike on Arab Salim in southern Lebanon, where the Israeli military had asked residents to flee earlier this morning. * Two Palestinians were injured in the occupied West Bank and nine others were detained during raids by Israeli forces. * Gaza holds funeral for around 100 Palestinians whose bodies were recovered from the rubble of homes destroyed in Israeli attacks. * Crude oil exports out of the Middle East during August 2026 were down 39 percent since the January and February baseline of 18.5 million barrels per day. * Yemeni government forces claim they have regained "complete control" of the district of Hays in the province of Hodeidah from the Houthis.

Scenario chain

Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.

A

Эскалация

80%

Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.

Primary source: Middle East Eye

Ваши вероятности A/B/C

C 33%

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