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Geopolitical··Severity 8

Europe failing to deter Russia’s ‘hybrid’ war, warn defence officials

Foiled drone attack at German airport seen as sign of Nato’s weak response and Moscow’s impunity

Scenario chain

Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.

A

Эскалация

69%

Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.

Primary source: FT World

Ваши вероятности A/B/C

C 33%

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