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Geopolitical··Severity 9

Iran attacks naval drone near Hormuz after US strikes 3 oil tankers

Iran said on Sunday that its forces attacked a US naval drone trying to enter the Strait of Hormuz, hours after targeting ships in retaliation for American strikes on three oil tankers. The latest round of clashes, which began with US raids last week, comes amid a deadlock in their six-month war. Iran has maintained its stranglehold on the strategic Strait of Hormuz while Washington continues a counter-blockade of Iranian ports. Washington is also seeking to choke Iran’s economy, rolling out...

Scenario chain

Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.

A

Эскалация

80%

Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.

Primary source: South China Morning Post

Ваши вероятности A/B/C

C 33%

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