Natural··Severity 7
FirstFT: Germany’s far-right AfD surges to first place in state elections
Also in today’s newsletter: Huawei set for New York trial and Indonesian wildfires spread
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
36%Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Primary source: FT World
Ваши вероятности A/B/C
C 33%
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