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Natural··Severity 7

Germany’s far-right AfD takes huge lead in key vote, early results suggest

Germany’s far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party headed towards a landslide victory in the eastern state of Saxony-Anhalt, with 44.5 percent of the voteearly results showed on Sunday.

Scenario chain

Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.

A

Эскалация

37%

Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.

Primary source: France24

Ваши вероятности A/B/C

C 33%

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