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Economic··Severity 7

Canada set to hit back at Trump tariffs, risking wider trade war

Canada is poised to impose tariffs of 15 per cent to 50 per cent on hundreds of products from the US on Tuesday, as Prime Minister Mark Carney bets that standing up to US President Donald Trump will eventually help Ottawa’s negotiating position with its biggest trading partner. Barring a last-minute reprieve, Carney’s government will increase the import tax on many US steel items to 50 per cent from 25 per cent and apply tariffs to a range of consumer items – motorcycles, cosmetics, cheese and...

Scenario chain

Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.

A

Эскалация

40%

Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.

Primary source: South China Morning Post

Ваши вероятности A/B/C

C 33%

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