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Military··Severity 8

How Tokyo is widening regional defence ties to complicate Beijing’s Taiwan calculus

The risk of a conflict over Taiwan is shaping Japanese defence planning, with Tokyo shoring up security at home and abroad for a potentially prolonged fight. But there are economic, demographic and political constraints on how far its military transformation can go. In the first of a three-part series, Gabriel Dominguez examines how Japan is building a network of partnerships to strengthen its strategic endurance. Japan is rapidly building a web of defence partnerships spanning the Indo-Pacific...

Scenario chain

Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.

A

Эскалация

69%

Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.

Primary source: South China Morning Post

Ваши вероятности A/B/C

C 33%

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