Geopolitical··Severity 9
IAEA says Iran blocking nuclear inspectors as Hormuz threats mount
IAEA chief Grossi told the Board of Governors that Tehran had provided no information on declared nuclear materials and inspectors had no on-site access, as Iran's parliament speaker threatened US energy assets with retaliatory strikes and the IRGC warned vessels off the southern Hormuz corridor.
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
79%Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Primary source: Euronews
Ваши вероятности A/B/C
C 33%
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