← Scenarios catalogue
Geopolitical··Severity 8

The domestic armed threat facing Iran

External support for ethnic armed groups poses an escalating security threat to Iran, experts and state officials warn.

Scenario chain

Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.

A

Эскалация

62%

Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.

Primary source: Al Jazeera

Ваши вероятности A/B/C

C 33%

Checking access status…