Geopolitical··Severity 9
Israel warns of 'full-scale war' if Palestinian Authority launches Oct. 7-style attack
Israel on Monday threatened a “full-scale war” against the Palestinian Authority if it believed the West Bank-based body was preparing an attack on Israeli forces or settlements resembling Hamas’s October 7, 2023 assault. The warning was denounced by Palestinian authorities as an attempt to fuel the conflict during the Israeli election season.
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
72%Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Primary source: France24
Ваши вероятности A/B/C
C 33%
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