← Scenarios catalogue
Social··Severity 7

'In deep shock': Germany reacts to far right's seismic win in local election

'In deep shock': Germany reacts to far right's seismic win in local election Submitted by Pauline Ertel on Thu, 09/03/2026 - 14:28 Saxony-Anhalt marks the AfD’s strongest performance in a regional election – and the highest vote share any party has secured at that level in the past decade Alternative for Germany (AfD) party co-leaders Alice Weidel and Tino Chrupalla, and lead candidate Ulrich Siegmund (centre), celebrate in Berlin on 7 September 2026 (Liesa Johannssen/Reuters) Off The far-right party Alternative for Germany (AfD) has gained a record high number of votes in Saxony-Anhalt's election, sending shockwaves across Germany . On Sunday, the eastern German state held regional elections during which the AfD won 43.8 percent of the vote, a rise of 23 percent since the last election in 2021. However, it fell short of securing an absolute majority, winning 39 of the 83 seats in the state legislature. The result is widely considered to be a major defeat for Germany's ruling party, the Christian Democratic Party (CDU). After several hours of silence, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz gave his response on Monday afternoon. "We are all in deep shock," Merz said, revealing that he did not expect the results "to look like this". "This shakes our party to its very foundations. We cannot simply carry on as before, nor can I, nor can the federal government," he added. Merz also announced that the results will have "consequences" and reiterated the need for "fundamental reforms" in Germany. The CDU's youth organisation in Saxony-Anhalt, the Junge Union, called for resignations "from the [party's] state chairman right down to the entire executive committee". "After a defeat on this scale, we cannot simply carry on as before," its chairman, Nico Elsner, said . All-time low result for governing party The CDU has been Saxony-Anhalt's strongest party during four consecutive election cycles since 2002. On Sunday, the party won an all-time low of 17.4 percent of the vote, roughly half its share at the last election, in 2021. The sweeping AfD victory, which marks the party’s strongest result in a regional election and the highest score recorded by any party at this level over the past 10 years, was hardly a surprise. Weeks ahead of the election, the party was polling at roughly 42 to 45 percent and fears were running high that the AfD would achieve 45 percent of votes, which would have given it a mandate to govern the state alone. Germany's far-right, pro-Israel AfD sweeps Saxony-Anhalt in historic electoral breakthrough Read More » An AfD majority rule would have placed legislative and executive power into the hands of the far right for the first time in Germany since World War Two. Ulrich Siegmund, the AfD’s lead candidate in Saxony-Anhalt, recently described as “Germany’s most dangerous man” by German news outlet Der Spiegel, is now on track to become chief minister of the state. He described the election results as "a sign that could hardly be any clearer". Siegmund's main demands include abolishing compulsory schooling, reducing public broadcasting to two opinion-free channels and tightening restrictions on asylum and immigration. With just under 44 percent of the total votes cast, the AfD must build a coalition with another party, a position it currently rejects. All German parties across the spectrum – except for the left-conservative populist Bundnis Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) – operate the so-called "Brandmauer" or "firewall", refusing any cooperation with the AfD on a national or federal level. The BSW, which has gained just over the five percent vote share needed to enter the state parliament, has already expressed interest in joining a potential AfD-led coalition. At this stage, several governing scenarios are possible. Besides a coalition with BSW, AfD could also receive support from several CDU defectors. Siegmund himself has raised the possibility of new elections in the state of Saxony-Anhalt. Separate schools for migrants Reactions to the election also poured in from abroad. Shortly after the results were announced, tech billionaire Elon Musk congratulated Afd co-chairwoman Alice Weidel on X with a brief "Well done!" Musk had provided high-profile support for the far-right party during the 2025 Bundestag election campaign. Gut gemacht! — Elon Musk (@elonmusk) September 6, 2026 Due to Germany's federalist structure, governance at a state level gives a party powers in matters of education, policing and culture. In Saxony-Anhalt, the AfD focused large parts of its party programme on introducing radical education reforms. In its election manifesto, inclusion is described as a "failed experiment that must be brought to an end". Children with refugee status and those with disabilities should be educated at special schools, the manifesto proposes. The AfD is also calling for school curriculums to be changed and for history lessons in all forms of schools to focus on teaching national identity and 19th-century history, particularly Otto von Bismarck – the German statesman who oversaw the unification of Germany and served as its first chancellor, from 1871 to 1890 – and the founding of the German Empire in 1871. The national flag and the singing of the national anthem should be integral parts of everyday school life, the party programme suggests. In a joint statement on Monday, the President of the German Rectors’ Conference (HRK), Walter Rosenthal, and the President of the Saxony-Anhalt State Rectors’ Conference (LRK), Folker Roland, called for their academic independence to be safeguarded. “Academic freedom, artistic freedom and university autonomy must be removed from the realm of day-to-day political disputes,” the statement read. From EU critical to 'remigration' policies Saaeid Saaeid, spokesperson for the Saxony-Anhalt Refugee Council, called the election "a black day for Saxony-Anhalt" on social media. During a press conference, he said that the election result was already causing great concern among migrants, with people wondering if they will be able to stay. French far-right leader Marine Le Pen polling at record high ahead of 2027 election Read More » “We do not yet know what sort of government will be formed, but we do know the fear these results are already causing," he said . "Our demand of any democratic government formation is therefore clear: protect refugees, create prospects for residency and facilitate access rather than imposing bans." Founded in 2013, the AfD originally advocated for a free market and a critical stance towards the euro. After 2015, which saw a substantial rise in arrivals to Europe of people fleeing conflicts and instability in Syria , Afghanistan and Iraq , the AfD increasingly redirected its agenda towards strict anti‑immigration stances and opposition to Islam, entrenching anti‑Muslim sentiment within Germany’s party landscape. Today, the centrepiece of the Afd's policies is the controversial concept of "remigration", widely understood to be a mass deportation of migrants. Since the last national election in 2025, the AfD is the second largest party, with 150 seats in the 630-seat Bundestag, Germany's national parliament. Since May 2025, the party has been classified as a "confirmed right-wing extremist endeavour" by Germany's domestic intelligence agency, the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution. Germany News Post Date Override 0 Update Date Mon, 05/04/2020 - 21:19 Update Date Override 0

Scenario chain

Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.

A

Эскалация

46%

Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.

Primary source: Middle East Eye

Ваши вероятности A/B/C

C 33%

Checking access status…