Natural··Severity 7
Who could form a coalition with Germany's AfD after election victory?
Germany's far-right AfD won a landslide victory in a key regional election Sunday in the ex-communist east, a result seen as a stinging rebuke for Chancellor Friedrich Merz, but looked set to miss out on an absolute majority to govern alone. The big question now is who, if anyone, will be willing to form a coalition with the party, says France 24's correspondent Nick Holdsworth.
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
36%Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Primary source: France24
Ваши вероятности A/B/C
C 33%
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