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Geopolitical··Severity 9

Iran warns of retaliation if IAEA adopts resolution against Tehran

Iran warns of retaliation if IAEA adopts resolution against Tehran Iran has warned that it will take reciprocal action if the UN nuclear watchdog adopts a resolution against Tehran, Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei said on Monday. Speaking at a press briefing, Baghaei criticised European states seeking a resolution against Iran, calling their approach “irrational” given that the ongoing US-Iran war has made several Iranian nuclear facilities inaccessible to international inspectors. His comments come as the US, Britain, France and Germany push for a resolution at the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) over Iran’s lack of cooperation and access to its nuclear sites. Iran has restricted IAEA access to facilities affected by previous strikes, arguing that normal safeguards arrangements have become impractical under wartime conditions. The dispute has deepened concerns over the status of Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile and the international community’s ability to verify the nature of its nuclear programme.

Scenario chain

Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.

A

Эскалация

80%

Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.

Primary source: Middle East Eye

Ваши вероятности A/B/C

C 33%

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