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Geopolitical··Severity 8

Hari: Oil Prices to Keep Grinding Higher

Vandana Hari, Founder of Vanda Insights, says oil prices are likely to continue a slow and steady climb as the U.S. and Iran remain locked in a cycle of escalation around the Strait of Hormuz. She says crude futures are not fully reflecting the physical market tightness, pointing to diesel prices near $200 a barrel in Atlantic markets and warning of further scarcity in the coming weeks and months. Hari also says markets would remain cautious even if Hormuz reopened, given doubts over whether any de-escalation would prove sustainable. She speaks with Abeer Abu Omar on Horizons Middle East & Africa. (Source: Bloomberg)

Scenario chain

Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.

A

Эскалация

61%

Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.

Primary source: Bloomberg Markets

Ваши вероятности A/B/C

C 33%

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