← Scenarios catalogue
Economic··Severity 7

UK’s Burnham risks Trump anger with new sanctions on Israel

UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham’s government is expected to ban trade with Israeli settlements in the West Bank on Tuesday as he seeks to adopt a stronger policy on an issue that is important to his governing Labour Party but may anger US President Donald Trump. A new sanctions regime targeting Israel but limited to Jewish settlements in the West Bank will be announced by Foreign Secretary Ed Miliband, according to people familiar with the matter. Burnham and Trump spoke by phone on Monday,...

Scenario chain

Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.

A

Эскалация

42%

Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.

Primary source: South China Morning Post

Ваши вероятности A/B/C

C 33%

Checking access status…