Nicaragua’s Army Will Decide What Comes After Ortega
The first institution Nicaragua’s National Assembly called to testify on the constitutional reform ending competitive elections was the army. On July 29, 2026, Gen. Julio César Avilés appeared before the Special Constitutional Commission and pledged the firm support of the Army of Nicaragua for a package that dissolves the electoral basis of the civilian authority he serves. Avilés spoke on behalf of the General Command, the Military Council, and the ground, naval, air, and reserve forces under his command. Five years earlier, at the ceremony launching the distribution of ballots for the 2021 election, the same officer committed 15,000 troops The post Nicaragua’s Army Will Decide What Comes After Ortega appeared first on War on the Rocks .
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Primary source: War on the Rocks
Ваши вероятности A/B/C
C 33%
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