Geopolitical··Severity 8
Ukrainian strikes kill 46 civilians, injure 266 in Russia over past week — diplomat
"The highest number of civilian casualties resulting from Ukrainian attacks was recorded in the Belgorod Region, the Donetsk People’s Republic, Lugansk People’s Republic, and the Zaporozhye and Kherson Regions," Rodion Miroshnik said
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
62%Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Primary source: TASS English
Ваши вероятности A/B/C
C 33%
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