Geopolitical··Severity 8
IAEA warns over Iran nuclear access as Western powers push UN referral
UN nuclear watchdog urges Iran to cooperate, as Western powers push to refer its nuclear file to the Security Council.
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
62%Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Primary source: Al Jazeera
Ваши вероятности A/B/C
C 33%
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