Geopolitical··Severity 9
Ukraine’s strikes lead to further escalation, tough Russian response — Foreign Ministry
Accusations that Russia is working toward escalation are categorically untrue, Rodion Miroshnik added
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
77%Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Primary source: TASS English
Ваши вероятности A/B/C
C 33%
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