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Geopolitical··Severity 9

Trump threatens ban on Bombardier as Canada's retaliatory tariffs kick in

Canada's retaliatory tariffs of up to 50 percent on approximately $19.8 billion worth of US goods came into effect this Tuesday, further escalating the trade war between the two neighbours. At the same time, US President Donald Trump is threatening to ban sales of all Bombardier aircraft in the US, in spite of the Canadian company's deep web of US suppliers. Also in this edition: Iran raises the price of gasoline and French startup Mistral AI is now valued at €21 billion.

Scenario chain

Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.

A

Эскалация

79%

Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.

Primary source: France24

Ваши вероятности A/B/C

C 33%

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