Geopolitical··Severity 9
Iran attacks US base after American strikes on tankers
Iran said it fired ballistic missiles at a US base in Jordan early Wednesday, in retaliation for US strikes on Iranian oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman and near Kharg Island, off Iran’s coast.
The US said five Iranian tankers were destroyed.
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
79%Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Primary source: France24
Ваши вероятности A/B/C
C 33%
Checking access status…