'New escalation in Yemen deeply concerning everyone in the region'
Oliver Farry is pleased to welcome Jules Grange Gastinel, Researcher at the Institute for Research and Studies on the Arab and Muslim World (IREMAM).
He depicts Yemen as moving from a prolonged condition of unresolved conflict into renewed regional confrontation.
The relative calm established after 2022, he argues, never amounted to a durable political settlement: Yemen remains divided between rival political, financial and military institutions.
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Primary source: France24
Ваши вероятности A/B/C
C 33%
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