Geopolitical··Severity 8
Nigeria, Boko Haram reportedly reach secret three-month ceasefire
The reported truce follows the release of 360 villagers abducted during a Boko Haram attack in northeastern Nigeria.
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
51%Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Primary source: Al Jazeera
Ваши вероятности A/B/C
C 33%
Checking access status…