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Geopolitical··Severity 9

Houthi offensive on Bab el-Mandeb Strait threatens new Red Sea shipping crisis

A battle for control of Yemen’s coastal plains overlooking the strategic Bab el-Mandeb Strait, launched on Friday by Iran-aligned Houthi rebels, is rapidly intensifying into an all-out war with Saudi-backed government forces.

A wave of Houthi missile and drone strikes launched against four cities in southern Saudi Arabia early on Tuesday, injuring 73 civilians, may prove to be the tipping point in the conflict, analysts say.

Coinciding with an escalating battle of attrition between the United...

Scenario chain

Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.

A

Эскалация

80%

Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.

Primary source: South China Morning Post

Ваши вероятности A/B/C

C 33%

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