Geopolitical··Severity 8
Kiev planned terrorist attacks in Moscow against UK envoy, diplomats as provocation — FSB
The FSB detained a former UK embassy security guard who was a Ukrainian Security Service (SBU) agent gathering information on British diplomats
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
56%Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Primary source: TASS English
Ваши вероятности A/B/C
C 33%
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