The Assessment Gap in U.S. Counter-Terrorism Strikes
For eight years I helped decide whether American counter-terrorism money was working.
As a programs advisor in the State Department’s Bureau of Counterterrorism from 2018 to 2025, I oversaw about 20 projects in East Africa worth roughly $80 million a year.
None of that money moved without a performance monitoring plan. We established baselines before work started and agreed on indicators in advance.
When a project underperformed, or the reporting came late, we withheld funding. Reporting tracked activities against those metrics across the life of the program. S.
Independent evaluations validated what implementers said they had done. That machinery was not the bureau’s The post The Assessment Gap in U.
Counter-Terrorism Strikes appeared first on War on the Rocks.
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Primary source: War on the Rocks
Ваши вероятности A/B/C
C 33%
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