Geopolitical··Severity 8
Russia could lose 30% of oil refining capacity for 18 months – IEA report
The IEA forecasts Russian oil refining at around 4 million barrels per day over the next 18 months, citing cumulative damage from Ukrainian strikes and sanctions.
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
64%Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Primary source: Ukrainska Pravda
Ваши вероятности A/B/C
C 33%
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