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Geopolitical··Severity 8

From Pakistan to Uzbekistan: how China’s J-10CE is widening its overseas reach

Battle-testing modern weapon systems can come at a steep price: a country must send its forces to war. But for China’s 4.5-generation J-10CE fighter aircraft, exports have opened another route.

Pakistan provided the aircraft’s first major combat test during its four-day conflict with India in May 2025, when Islamabad’s J-10CEs were used in an air battle.

Two US officials told Reuters that at least two Indian aircraft were downed, including a French-built Rafale – though the precise losses,...

Scenario chain

Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.

A

Эскалация

62%

Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.

Primary source: South China Morning Post

Ваши вероятности A/B/C

C 33%

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