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Geopolitical··Severity 8

25 years after 9/11, al Qaeda remains a threat – even as Washington looks away

A quarter of a century after the deadliest terrorist attacks in US history, al Qaeda’s various branches have moved away from the global jihad advocated by Osama bin Laden, focusing instead on regional insurgencies.

Their actions continue to destabilise swathes of the world, from the Sahel to Afghanistan, neglected by a US administration that critics say has unlearned the lessons of 9/11.

Scenario chain

Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.

A

Эскалация

57%

Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.

Primary source: France24

Ваши вероятности A/B/C

C 33%

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