Geopolitical··Severity 8
Ukraine Strikes Degrade Russian Oil-Refining Industry, IEA Says
Russia’s oil-processing is being degraded as sanctions prevent the refining industry from recovering from more intense and precise Ukrainian drone strikes, according to the International Energy Agency.
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
68%Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Primary source: Bloomberg Markets
Ваши вероятности A/B/C
C 33%
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