Geopolitical··Severity 8
Iran-backed Houthis seize near control of vital Bab el-Mandeb shipping lane
Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthi rebels captured the strategic Perim Island in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, located at the southern entrance to the Red Sea, officials said on Friday.
The lightning move opens a new front in the Iran war and threatens energy supplies, especially Saudi oil exports, from passing through one of the world's key shipping lanes.
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
66%Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Primary source: France24
Ваши вероятности A/B/C
C 33%
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