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Geopolitical··Severity 8

Iran Nuclear Blind Spot Deepens as IAEA Loses Access

Former US Energy Secretary Ernest Moniz says the loss of IAEA access to Iran has created a serious monitoring gap that makes it increasingly difficult to determine the status of the country's nuclear program.

Moniz also warns hosts David Gura and Christina Ruffini that tight global supplies of diesel and other refined fuels could face additional pressure as US refineries, already running near capacity, approach their fall maintenance season.

(Source: Bloomberg)

Scenario chain

Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.

A

Эскалация

64%

Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.

Primary source: Bloomberg Markets

Ваши вероятности A/B/C

C 33%

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