Geopolitical··Severity 8
Former Russian president threatens to wipe Lithuania "off the map" and says NATO will not defend it
Russian Security Council Deputy Chairman Dmitry Medvedev threatens that Lithuania could be "wiped off the map" if US nuclear weapons are deployed there and claims NATO would not invoke Article 5.
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
62%Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Primary source: Ukrainska Pravda
Ваши вероятности A/B/C
C 33%
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