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Military··Severity 8

Iran War Revives Lessons of Iraq for Fukuyama

Joining David Gura on Bloomberg This Weekend, Stanford Spogli Institute for International Studies Senior Fellow Francis Fukuyama says the Iran war risks repeating lessons from Iraq and Afghanistan, arguing that military power alone is unlikely to produce lasting political change.

In discussing his new memoir, In the Realm of the Last Man, he also warns that the rapid advance of AI could outpace governments' ability to regulate it and challenge the role that work plays in giving people purpose.

(Source: Bloomberg)

Scenario chain

Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.

A

Эскалация

71%

Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.

Primary source: Bloomberg Markets

Ваши вероятности A/B/C

C 33%

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