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Military··Severity 8

Israel uses Lebanese civilians as bargaining chips

Israel uses Lebanese civilians as bargaining chips Lebanese farmer Saleh* woke up before dawn on 3 September to harvest his fig trees in the southern Lebanese border village of Halta.

When he stepped out and saw lights outside his neighbours' house, abandoned during the war, Saleh knew an Israeli army unit was there.

The Israeli soldiers were searching houses in the village and called three residents on their mobile phones instructing them to come outside.

After several hours of interrogations, they took the three men away, including Hatem Abdel-Aal, a member of the municipal council. The Israeli army returned Hatem at around midnight.

“They told him you have to come to us by foot, without a car,” Saleh told Middle East Eye. “The man followed their instructions and headed their way.

He couldn’t refuse. ” Read more: Israel uses Lebanese civilians as bargaining chips Israeli troops take a break as they prepare to enter south Lebanon, in Rosh HaNikra, northern Israel, on 4 September 2026 (AFP)

Scenario chain

Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.

A

Эскалация

76%

Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.

Primary source: Middle East Eye

Ваши вероятности A/B/C

C 33%

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