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Military··Severity 9

Morning recap

Morning recap Good morning, Middle East Eye readers, If you're just joining us, here are the key developments from across the region: • One person was killed and three others were wounded when an Iranian commercial vessel was struck near Hengam Island and the Shib Deraz coast of Qeshm Island.

• Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said Iran will not surrender to US pressure, accusing Washington of targeting civilian infrastructure and essential supplies.

• Yemen's Houthis say they used drones and missiles to attack a military base in southern Saudi Arabia.

• Bahrain has announced it will not participate in the meeting scheduled for Monday in Oman between Iran and Gulf states regarding the Strait of Hormuz.

• American forces have redirected 100 commercial vessels over the past 60 days since the US enforced a naval blockade against Iran, US Central Command (Centcom) said.

• A vessel transiting the Strait of Hormuz has been hit by an unknown projectile, according to the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO).

• Israeli settlers brutally beat a 23-year-old Palestinian man during a settler raid on the central West Bank village of Beitillu on Saturday evening.

• At least 1,400 refugees fleeing Yemen have arrived in Djibouti, according to Djibouti’s minister of economy and finance, Ilyas Moussa Dawaleh.

• Yemeni government forces that withdrew from the country’s west coast are regrouping and will return to the battlefield, according to Sultan al-Arada, a member of Yemen’s Presidential Leadership Council.

Scenario chain

Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.

A

Эскалация

80%

Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.

Primary source: Middle East Eye

Ваши вероятности A/B/C

C 33%

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