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Geopolitical··Severity 9

Saudi Arabian pipeline outage threatens global oil supply

Saudi Arabian pipeline outage threatens global oil supply Saudi Arabia will run out of oil stocks for exports if it doesn't restart its major pipeline to the Red Sea within days, leading to a loss of up to 4 percent of global supply, Saudi oil buyers and traders told Reuters on Sunday.

A further decline in Saudi flows will worsen the global supply crunch, which has already pushed global fuel prices to record highs since the US-Iran war.

Since drone attacks launched from Iraq forced Saudi Arabia to shut its huge east-west oil pipeline on Friday, Riyadh has not given full details about the extent of the damage or how long the route will stay off-line.

Sources that spoke to Reuters gave varying estimates, with one saying the damage could take as long as five to six weeks to repair, while another said it could be fixed sooner and could resume pumping partially while repairs are ongoing.

Scenario chain

Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.

A

Эскалация

80%

Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.

Primary source: Middle East Eye

Ваши вероятности A/B/C

C 33%

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