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Geopolitical··Severity 8

Bangladesh draws closer to China in ‘political chessboard’ to balance India ties

Bangladesh’s tilt towards China has added a new dimension to security and trade in South Asia, signalling what observers see as Dhaka’s desire to be a strategic actor in the region and ease its overreliance on India.

The hedging policy comes after the fall of Sheikh Hasina’s Awami League government in 2024 amid a student-led uprising.

Under an interim government led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus, and then the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) after it came to power in February, the country’s...

Scenario chain

Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.

A

Эскалация

64%

Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.

Primary source: South China Morning Post

Ваши вероятности A/B/C

C 33%

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