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Economic··Severity 7

Russians to vote, but the outcome is already decided

First election for the Duma since the Ukraine invasion, inflation reports dominate the economic data run, and the Fed, BoE and BoJ make interest rate announcements

Scenario chain

Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.

A

Эскалация

45%

Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.

Primary source: FT World

Ваши вероятности A/B/C

C 33%

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